Ice Box was awesome in the Florida Derby.  Rule set nice fractions and Ice Box had a Mine That Bird-like turn of foot, yet had to swing 6 wide, and flew up there for a photo finish.  Love those fast closers.

   Now that I know Awesome Act threw a shoe right out of the gate in the Wood, I watched the race again.  He visibly limped the entire way, yet was monstrously game the whole way in losing to huge Derby fave Eskendereya.  I loved everything Awesome Act had done until that race.  Now I love him more.

   Remember the route Mine That Bird took into the Derby?  The Sunland Derby?   You must be kidding.  Well, check out the winner of the Sunland Derby this year.   I dismissed it again, until I watched Endorsement blow by Conveyance.  Endorsement is a tiny looking horse, like Summer Squall many years ago.  But Endorsement is worth a serious look.   Can lightning strike twice out of the Sunland Derby?

   Lookin at Lucky got mashed into the rail in the Santa Anita Derby, and came back fast.  That’s a great sign.  But the horse who turned in the best performance of all the ones I watched was Setsuko.  Closing fast and flying 5 wide, he looks like he could win the Derby.  Too bad he’s probably not going to make the field of 20.

   Oh yeah, Eskendereya looks great too.  Love the way he runs away from the crowd, like Adrian Peterson on a touchdown run.  But he’ll be 2 to 1.  I’m trying to give you some alternatives, but they may all be running for 2nd place.

   Eskendereya looks scary good if you check out his past performances.  Most noteably, the last two, when he dusted two stellar fields by a combined 19 lengths, and was widening the distance on them all, which suggests he can go longer with ease.

   The overwhelming favorite brings me to the next story line.   His trainer, Todd Pletcher, is 0 for 24 in the Derby.  That Susan Lucci-like streak has to end some time.   And it looks like Pletcher has 6 of the 20 starters in the Kentucky Derby this year.  Maybe 7 after this weekend’s Lexington Stakes at Keeneland.

   Another interesting thing shaping up this year is the battle to make the field.  Only the top 20 graded-stakes money earners make the field for the Derby.  Last year, it was relatively easy to get in.  You could make the field with only $50,000 in earnings.  This year it’s extremely competitive.  Jackson Bend, for examply, is not in yet, despite the fact he’s finished no worse than 2nd in all 9 career races, the last 3 being high-paying graded stakes.

   And it’s also encouraging this year to see the old-time favorites back in action, with viable horses.   Bob Baffert is back with Lookin At Lucky, who will be the second choice in the betting.  And Nick Zito and D. Wayne Lukas are also back with good horses.  In fact, it could be interesting, as the old school trainers try to extend rival Todd Pletcher’s streak from 0 for 24, to 0 for 30.

1- Pioneer of the Nile:  When I saw him circle the field in the Lewis Stakes, I knew he was a Derby type.  Plus, it’s time for Bob to win again.

2-General Quarters:  The best story in the history of the Kentucky Derby.  One man owner and trainer and he was flying in the final fractions on poly.

3-I Want Revenge:  After that bad break in his last, and then blowing by the competition, that’s serious stuff.

4-Dunkird:  When these people pay 3.7 million for a well-bred horse, they know what they’re doing.

5-Quality Road:  I was on him when no one else was in Florida at 13:1, but now he has bad feet.

6-Hold Me Back:  Live long-shot.  Was closing on the General, and looked great in his Lane’s End win.

7-Friesan Fire:  I haven’t liked him because of some slow times.  Otherwise, he figures.

8-Desert Party:  I hate these Godolphin horses, but his works and breeding look great.

9-Musket Man:  Eibar Coa chose him over General Quarters, so he must be good.

10-West Side Bernie:  I have a future bet on him at really long odds, so he won’t win.

A 75-year old man, who owns and trains one horse, might just win the Kentucky Derby.  Retired local school principal Tom McCarthy claimed a horse for $20,ooo in the first race of its life.  He’s going up against big name stables that train hundreds of multi-million dollar horses in an attempt to get one or two to the starting gate on Derby day.  He just punched his ticket as a 15 to 1 longshot in the Bluegrass Stakes, where he crushed the field with General Quarters. 

We’ve been spending time with Tom, both here and over at Keeneland before and during the Bluegrass Stakes.  People laughed at us.  They’re not laughing anymore.  He’s a true one-man-band.  He won’t let anyone else touch his horse.  You know how us old guys can be. 

Tom flies in the face of everything you’ve seen in the Derby in recent years.  But he knows his stuff.  He babysits the General virtually round the clock.  I would too if I were in his shoes.  So many strange injuries pop up at this time of year to knock promising colts off the Derby trail.  Just getting General Quarters in to the Derby was a million-to-one shot.  Now, I think the man with one horse has a real shot at winning.  I’ll keep you posted.

People have a hard time cheering for these filthy rich owners. And as for the athletes involved: horses do bad interviews, and it’s hard to relate to a 4-foot tall, 111 pound jockey. So it’s all up to the trainers. Todd Pletcher’s a nice guy, and so is soft-spoken Steve Asmussen, but they’re nothing compared to guys like Bob Baffert and D. Wayne Lukas. And they’ve been missing in action at the Derby for way too long.

Think about it. When was the last time we someone as outspoken as D. Wayne making everybody mad? I remember back in the ’90′s when he was the keynote speaker at the They’re Off luncheon. They asked him to go down the list of that year’s Derby starters and assess the strengths and weaknesses of each. When he got down to one of them, he said, “The only real weakness I see with this horse, is he’s ridden by a woman.”

A collective, loud gasp went up over the mostly female crowd, many of whom were ecstatic over a woman being named to ride a Derby starter. But undaunted, D. Wayne looked up at the horrified crowd, and instead of backing off, he twisted the knife further.

“Did I offend someone?” he countered. “Perhaps one of you could raise your hand and tell me the last female to win the Kentucky Derby.”

Wow, I thought, as I started sweating in my seat: that guy’s got… Well, let’s just say he’s not gelded.

And Bob Baffert’s not afraid of being just as outspoken. He’s funny, and there’s no filter at the exit of his mouth. Just the kind of character we need around here again. And did I mention he’s bringing in my Derby pick this year: Pioneer of the Nile. If you want to see why, check out his furious finish in the Robert B. Lewis stakes earlier this year. And I think he’s going to be ridden in the Derby by a man. After all, according to D. Wayne, that’s important.